Add degrowth to climate intervention cost comparison
· 7 months ago
195799819f05ceba335fadc66497216857fedd27
Parent:
ddd6ebd8f
Expanded the cost-effectiveness comparison table to include degrowth (economic contraction) as a climate intervention, with detailed cost estimates and analysis. Added explanatory alerts highlighting the extreme cost and impracticality of degrowth relative to other approaches, and updated philanthropic portfolio recommendations to reflect new data.
1 file changed +48 −8
- geoengineering-approaches.html +48 −8
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--- a/geoengineering-approaches.html +++ b/geoengineering-approaches.html @@ -867,6 +867,10 @@ <h2 class="section-header"><i class="bi bi-bar-chart"></i> Part 3: Cost-Effectiveness Comparison Across Climate Interventions</h2> <p class="lead">Comparative analysis of geoengineering approaches versus traditional climate interventions, focused on cost per tonne CO₂ removed or offset for philanthropic deployment decisions.</p> + <div class="alert alert-info mb-3"> + <strong><i class="bi bi-info-circle"></i> "Solving" Climate Change Definition:</strong> For comparison purposes, "solve" means removing <strong>500 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO₂</strong> to reverse warming from current ~1.3°C to ~1.0°C above pre-industrial levels, OR providing equivalent cooling indefinitely. This represents roughly one-third of total anthropogenic emissions and a realistic target for significant climate reversal. + </div> + <div class="table-responsive"> <table class="comparison-table"> <thead> @@ -874,6 +878,7 @@ <th>Category</th> <th>Method</th> <th>Cost per Tonne CO₂</th> + <th>Total Cost to "Solve"<br><small>(500 Gt removal or equivalent)</small></th> <th>Deployment Readiness</th> <th>Key Deployment Challenge</th> </tr> @@ -883,6 +888,7 @@ <td><strong>Geoengineering (CDR)</strong></td> <td><strong>Direct Air Capture</strong></td> <td>$600–$1,000+ (current)<br>$100–$540 (projected)</td> + <td><strong>Current:</strong> $300–500 trillion<br><strong>Projected:</strong> $50–270 trillion<br><br><small>At optimistic $100/ton: still $50 trillion (67% of global GDP)</small></td> <td><strong>Early commercial stage.</strong> Major facilities under construction. Requires continued philanthropic/policy support to achieve scale and cost reductions. Technology proven but expensive.</td> <td>Extremely high capital and energy costs. Needs abundant low-carbon energy and CO₂ storage infrastructure. Cost reductions uncertain—thermodynamic limits may keep costs high indefinitely.</td> </tr> @@ -890,6 +896,7 @@ <td><strong>Geoengineering (CDR)</strong></td> <td><strong>Enhanced Rock Weathering</strong></td> <td>$150–$300 (current)<br>$16–$100 (projected)</td> + <td><strong>Current:</strong> $75–150 trillion<br><strong>Projected:</strong> $8–50 trillion<br><br><small>At best-case $16/ton: $8 trillion (10% of global GDP) - highly cost-competitive if verification solved</small></td> <td><strong>Early research stage.</strong> Field trials underway but unproven at scale. Measurement and verification protocols still being developed. Potentially very cost-effective if successful.</td> <td>Measurement uncertainty—difficult to verify actual CO₂ removal. Large-scale logistics of grinding and distributing billions of tons of rock. Potential ecosystem impacts from heavy metals and altered soil chemistry.</td> </tr> @@ -897,47 +904,80 @@ <td><strong>Geoengineering (CDR)</strong></td> <td><strong>BECCS</strong></td> <td>$60–$250 (current)<br>$40–$300 (projected)</td> + <td><strong>Current:</strong> $30–125 trillion<br><strong>Projected:</strong> $20–150 trillion<br><br><small>Land constraint: 500 Gt removal would require 300-700M hectares (area larger than India) - likely infeasible at this scale</small></td> <td><strong>Pilot/demonstration stage.</strong> Technology components mature but integration limited. Scalability constrained by biomass availability and land competition.</td> <td>Massive land requirements (potentially hundreds of millions of hectares). Competition with food production. Water and fertilizer demands. Carbon accounting complexity—lifecycle emissions may be substantial.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Geoengineering (SRM)</strong></td> <td><strong>Stratospheric Aerosol Injection</strong></td> - <td><strong>$1–$10 per tonne CO₂e</strong> cooling equivalent</td> + <td><strong>Current (pilot):</strong> $0.28–10 per ton CO₂e/year<br><strong>At scale (projected):</strong> <$0.01–1 per ton CO₂e/year<br><br><small>Note: Annual cost to maintain cooling, not permanent removal</small></td> + <td><strong>Annual ongoing:</strong> $10–20 billion/year (offsets 1°C)<br><br><strong>50-year commitment:</strong> $500B–1T<br><strong>100-year commitment:</strong> $1–2T<br><br><small>Orders of magnitude cheaper than CDR but must continue indefinitely. Does NOT remove CO₂.</small></td> <td><strong>Technically feasible but ungoverned.</strong> Extremely low cost and rapid deployment possible, but no international framework exists. Carries catastrophic termination risk.</td> <td>Governance vacuum—no international agreement on deployment authority. Termination shock if stopped abruptly. Regional climate disruption (monsoon impacts). Requires indefinite commitment. Does not address ocean acidification.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Geoengineering (SRM)</strong></td> <td><strong>Marine Cloud Brightening</strong></td> - <td><strong>~$2–5 per tonne CO₂e</strong> cooling equivalent</td> + <td><strong>Current (pilot):</strong> Unknown<br><strong>At scale (projected):</strong> $2–5 per ton CO₂e/year<br><br><small>Note: Annual cost to maintain cooling, not permanent removal</small></td> + <td><strong>Annual ongoing:</strong> $5 billion/year (large-scale program)<br><br><strong>Regional applications:</strong> $50–200M/year (coral reef protection, hurricane mitigation)<br><br><small>Best suited for targeted ecosystem protection rather than global solution</small></td> <td><strong>Proof-of-concept stage.</strong> Ship tracks demonstrate principle. Small field tests conducted. Allows incremental, reversible deployment—suitable for careful scaling.</td> <td>Effectiveness uncertainty—cloud responses at scale poorly understood. Regional precipitation impacts. Requires continuous operation. Limited cooling potential compared to SAI. International waters governance unclear.</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Traditional (Removal)</strong></td> <td><strong>Forestry / Reforestation</strong></td> - <td>$5–$50 per tonne</td> + <td><strong>Current/at scale:</strong> $5–$50 per tonne<br><br><small>Mature market with established pricing. Lower end for basic reforestation, higher end for premium verified credits.</small></td> + <td><strong>Realistic capacity:</strong> ~300-400 Gt globally<br><strong>Total cost:</strong> $1.5–20 trillion<br><br><small>Excellent cost-effectiveness but land-constrained. Can contribute significantly but cannot solve problem alone. Co-benefits for biodiversity.</small></td> <td><strong>Mature and scalable.</strong> Well-understood, low-cost, provides co-benefits (biodiversity, livelihoods). Suitable for immediate large-scale deployment.</td> <td>Permanence concerns—forests can burn, be logged, or die from climate change itself. Additionality verification difficult. Saturation limits—finite suitable land. Time lag for carbon uptake (decades).</td> </tr> <tr> <td><strong>Traditional (Avoidance)</strong></td> <td><strong>Renewable Energy</strong></td> - <td>Often <$10/tonne (implicit cost)</td> + <td><strong>Current/at scale:</strong> <$10/tonne CO₂ avoided<br><br><small>Implicit cost based on renewable vs fossil LCOE. Often economically competitive or superior without carbon pricing.</small></td> + <td><strong>Prevents future emissions</strong> (~70 Gt CO₂/year globally)<br><br><strong>Energy transition cost:</strong> $100-150 trillion through 2050<br><br><small>Essential for stopping problem from worsening but does NOT remove existing atmospheric CO₂. Already economically competitive.</small></td> <td><strong>Mature and economically competitive.</strong> Often cheaper than fossil alternatives. Scaling rapidly without philanthropic support in many markets.</td> <td>Additionality—many projects economically viable without carbon finance. Geographic limits (best solar/wind resources finite). Grid integration and storage needs. Does not remove existing atmospheric CO₂.</td> </tr> + <tr style="background-color: #fff3cd;"> + <td><strong>Degrowth (Avoidance)</strong></td> + <td><strong>Economic Contraction / Deindustrialization</strong></td> + <td><strong>Empirical cost:</strong> ~$1,000+ per tonne CO₂ avoided<br><br><small>Based on COVID-19 lockdowns: 7% emission reduction cost ~3.3% GDP ($2.5T), equating to $1,000+/ton. Forced degrowth imposes massive opportunity costs.</small></td> + <td><strong>To avoid 500 Gt emissions:</strong> $500+ trillion in lost economic output<br><br><strong>Equivalent to:</strong> ~7 years of total global GDP sacrificed<br><br><small>Economically catastrophic. Would require sustained 50%+ reduction in global economic activity for decades.</small></td> + <td><strong>Politically and economically untenable.</strong> No government or population would accept multi-decade economic depression. Historical attempts (Great Leap Forward, Khmer Rouge agrarianism) led to mass starvation and death.</td> + <td>Massive unemployment, poverty, social collapse, political instability. Reverses development gains in Global South. Violates basic human welfare principles. Does not address existing atmospheric CO₂. <strong>Highest cost per tonne of any approach by 2-3 orders of magnitude.</strong></td> + </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> + <div class="alert alert-warning mt-4"> + <h4 class="alert-heading"><i class="bi bi-exclamation-triangle"></i> Critical Cost Comparison</h4> + <p><strong>Degrowth is the most expensive "solution" by far:</strong> At ~$1,000+/tonne, economic contraction is <strong>100-1,000× more expensive</strong> than engineered CDR methods and <strong>100,000× more expensive</strong> than SRM approaches. The COVID-19 natural experiment demonstrated that even modest emission reductions via economic slowdown impose catastrophic economic costs.</p> + <p class="mb-0"><strong>This is why no credible climate economist recommends degrowth as a mitigation strategy.</strong> Every dollar spent on forced economic contraction could achieve 100-100,000× more climate benefit via geoengineering, renewables, or forestry while preserving human welfare.</p> + </div> + <div class="alert alert-success mt-4"> <h4 class="alert-heading"><i class="bi bi-lightbulb"></i> Philanthropic Portfolio Considerations</h4> - <p><strong>For immediate, high-certainty impact:</strong> Forestry and renewable energy offer proven, scalable options at $5-50/tonne with significant co-benefits.</p> - <p><strong>For long-term innovation investment:</strong> DAC and ERW represent frontier CDR technologies that could become essential for net-zero by 2050-2100. Early philanthropic support accelerates cost reduction and deployment readiness.</p> - <p><strong>For emergency preparedness research:</strong> Small-scale SRM research and governance development ($10-100M/year) could provide critical options if warming accelerates dangerously, despite significant risks and uncertainties.</p> - <p class="mb-0"><strong>For targeted ecosystem protection:</strong> MCB offers potential for regional interventions (coral reefs, hurricane mitigation) with moderate costs ($50-200M/year) and reversible deployment.</p> + + <p><strong>Cost Reality Check:</strong> The table above reveals extraordinary cost disparities. SAI could offset 1°C of warming for <strong>100 years at $1-2 trillion</strong>—less than 2% of what DAC would cost to remove equivalent CO₂ ($50-270 trillion). However, SRM treats symptoms while CDR addresses root causes.</p> + + <p><strong>For immediate, high-certainty impact:</strong> Forestry offers proven removal at $5-50/tonne with ~$1.5-20 trillion total for realistic capacity (300-400 Gt). Best near-term option for actual CO₂ removal with biodiversity co-benefits.</p> + + <p><strong>For long-term innovation investment:</strong> ERW shows most promise for cost reduction ($8-50 trillion at scale vs $50-270 trillion for DAC). Early philanthropic support ($10-100M) for field trials and verification protocols could unlock cheapest permanent CDR pathway.</p> + + <p><strong>For emergency preparedness research:</strong> SAI governance and small-scale field trials ($10-100M/year) provide insurance against catastrophic warming at negligible cost relative to alternatives. The $10-20B/year deployment cost is 2-3 orders of magnitude cheaper than CDR alternatives.</p> + + <p class="mb-0"><strong>For targeted ecosystem protection:</strong> MCB offers regional interventions (coral reefs at $50-200M/year, hurricane mitigation) with reversible deployment—excellent for proof-of-concept before considering global deployment.</p> + + <div class="alert alert-warning mt-3 mb-0"> + <strong><i class="bi bi-exclamation-triangle"></i> Portfolio Strategy:</strong> A comprehensive approach likely requires: (1) <strong>SAI research/deployment readiness</strong> ($1-10B) for temperature control, (2) <strong>Forestry acceleration</strong> ($100B-1T) for immediate verified removal, (3) <strong>ERW innovation</strong> ($10-100M) for long-term cost-effective CDR, and (4) <strong>Renewable energy</strong> (market-driven) to stop making the problem worse. Total philanthropic need: <strong>~$100B-2T</strong> vs $50-500 trillion for CDR-only approaches vs <strong>$500+ trillion for degrowth</strong>. + </div> + + <div class="alert alert-danger mt-3 mb-0"> + <strong><i class="bi bi-x-octagon"></i> What NOT to Fund:</strong> Degrowth advocacy represents catastrophically poor climate ROI at $1,000+/tonne—literally 100,000× worse than SAI and 10-100× worse than even the most expensive CDR approaches. Any philanthropic dollar toward degrowth could prevent 100× more warming if redirected to forestry, 1,000× more via ERW, or 100,000× more via SAI research. <strong>Economic contraction as climate policy is a humanitarian disaster disguised as environmental virtue.</strong> + </div> </div> </div>