Expand discussion on SAI termination shock risks
· 7 months ago
4fb3a24318e07c1529baef7e2114c7adb0666446
Parent:
55acaaffb
Added detailed analysis of the economic feasibility of sustaining Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), arguing that termination shock is less likely due to the low cost relative to global GDP. Included historical precedents, mitigation strategies, and clarified that the main challenges are political rather than technical or financial.
1 file changed +12 −2
- geoengineering-approaches.html +12 −2
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--- a/geoengineering-approaches.html +++ b/geoengineering-approaches.html @@ -696,7 +696,11 @@ </div> <div class="alert alert-info mt-3"> - <strong><i class="bi bi-calculator"></i> Philanthropic Impact Scale:</strong> A <strong>$1 billion/year commitment</strong> could offset roughly <strong>5-10% of current warming</strong> (0.05-0.1°C). However, this must be sustained indefinitely and comes with major governance and side-effect uncertainties that monetary analysis alone cannot capture. + <strong><i class="bi bi-calculator"></i> Philanthropic Impact Scale:</strong> A <strong>$1 billion/year commitment</strong> could offset roughly <strong>5-10% of current warming</strong> (0.05-0.1°C). While this must be sustained indefinitely, the cost is so low (0.01% of global GDP) that economic termination shock is implausible—any scenario where humanity cannot afford this is already catastrophic for other reasons. + </div> + + <div class="alert alert-success mt-3"> + <strong><i class="bi bi-lightbulb"></i> Termination Shock Context:</strong> Critics often cite termination shock as a major risk, but the economic math reveals this concern may be overstated. The world economy would need to shrink to <strong>less than $1 trillion</strong> (from current $100+ trillion) before SAI becomes unaffordable—a collapse so severe that rapid warming would be among many catastrophic problems. For perspective: the U.S. alone spent <strong>$5 trillion</strong> on pandemic relief, enough to fund SAI at full scale for <strong>250-500 years</strong>. </div> </div> @@ -704,7 +708,13 @@ <h4><i class="bi bi-question-circle"></i> Key Criticisms & Unanswered Questions</h4> <div class="alert-custom alert-criticism"> <div class="alert-title"><i class="bi bi-exclamation-octagon"></i> Termination Shock</div> - <p>What happens if we start SRM and then, decades later, suddenly stop? If SAI were masking, say, 1°C of warming and ceased abruptly, the planet would rapidly "catch up" to where it would have been, potentially warming that 1°C within a decade or even just a few years. That rate of change (a shock of <strong>several tenths of a degree per year</strong>) is many times faster than current climate change, and far beyond what ecosystems or human infrastructure could handle. Once SAI is begun at scale, there is a <strong>strong commitment to continue it</strong> or to very carefully ramp it down over a long period.</p> + <p><strong>The Risk:</strong> What happens if we start SRM and then, decades later, suddenly stop? If SAI were masking, say, 1°C of warming and ceased abruptly, the planet would rapidly "catch up" to where it would have been, potentially warming that 1°C within a decade or even just a few years. That rate of change (a shock of <strong>several tenths of a degree per year</strong>) is many times faster than current climate change, and far beyond what ecosystems or human infrastructure could handle.</p> + + <p><strong>Economic Reality Check:</strong> However, this concern must be weighed against SAI's trivial cost. At <strong>$10-20 billion per year</strong> to offset 1°C of warming, the global economy (currently ~$100 trillion/year) would need to collapse by <strong>99.9%</strong> before this became unaffordable. Any scenario where civilization cannot budget 0.01-0.02% of GDP for SAI is likely already catastrophic—making termination shock "a nightmare scenario on top of an existing nightmare," not an independent risk.</p> + + <p><strong>Historical Precedent:</strong> We're already experiencing mild termination effects. When shipping emissions were cleaned up (IMO 2020) and when the U.S. Clean Air Act reduced SO₂ emissions from 130 million tons/year (1979) to 70 million tons/year (2022), we unmasked warming. The world managed these transitions, demonstrating that gradual adjustments are feasible.</p> + + <p><strong>Mitigation Strategies:</strong> Termination risk can be managed through: (1) gradual ramp-down over decades rather than abrupt cessation, (2) parallel deployment of CDR to reduce underlying CO₂ levels, (3) international redundancy with multiple deployment nations/actors, and (4) treating SAI as critical infrastructure with budget protection similar to defense or public health. The commitment required is financial (trivial) and political (challenging but manageable), not technical.</p> </div> <div class="alert-custom alert-criticism">