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Designed for strategy workshops, policy reviews, and research roadmaps.</p> + <div class="hero-actions"> + <a class="btn btn-primary" href="#core-dynamics"><i class="bi bi-diagram-3 me-2"></i>Core Dynamics</a> + <a class="btn btn-outline-light" href="#scenario-lab"><i class="bi bi-grid-3x3-gap me-2"></i>Scenario Lab</a> + <a class="btn btn-outline-light" href="#alignment-spectrum"><i class="bi bi-activity me-2"></i>Alignment Spectrum</a> + <a class="btn btn-outline-light" href="#governance"><i class="bi bi-shield-check me-2"></i>Governance</a> + </div> + <div class="hero-kpi"> + <div class="kpi-card"> + <h3 class="h5 mb-1">Path Dependency</h3> + <p class="mb-2 text-muted small">LLM-first vs Embodiment-first futures</p> + <div class="progress" role="progressbar" aria-label="Path dependency pressure" aria-valuenow="72" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> + <div class="progress-bar bg-info" style="width:72%"></div> + </div> + </div> + <div class="kpi-card"> + <h3 class="h5 mb-1">Resource Bottlenecks</h3> + <p class="mb-2 text-muted small">Compute • Energy • Data</p> + <div class="progress" role="progressbar" aria-label="Resource bottlenecks" aria-valuenow="84" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> + <div class="progress-bar bg-danger" style="width:84%"></div> + </div> + </div> + <div class="kpi-card"> + <h3 class="h5 mb-1">Recursive Loops</h3> + <p class="mb-2 text-muted small">Automation of AI R&D</p> + <div class="progress" role="progressbar" aria-label="Recursive loops" aria-valuenow="60" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> + <div class="progress-bar bg-success" style="width:60%"></div> + </div> + </div> + <div class="kpi-card"> + <h3 class="h5 mb-1">Geopolitical Pressure</h3> + <p class="mb-2 text-muted small">US • China • Multipolar</p> + <div class="progress" role="progressbar" aria-label="Geopolitical pressure" aria-valuenow="77" aria-valuemin="0" aria-valuemax="100"> + <div class="progress-bar bg-warning" style="width:77%"></div> + </div> + </div> + </div> + </div> +</header> + +<main class="container-xl"> + <section class="section-card" id="core-dynamics"> + <div class="d-flex justify-content-between align-items-center flex-wrap"> + <div> + <p class="section-title">Part 1</p> + <h2 class="mb-2">Four Core Dynamics of AGI Development</h2> + </div> + <div class="chip"><i class="bi bi-clock-history"></i> Updated 2025-11-08</div> + </div> + <p class="text-muted">Every forecast downstream of AGI inherits these pressures. Use them as the "compass" for evaluating new breakthroughs or policy moves.</p> + <div class="force-grid"> + <article class="force-card"> + <span>Force 01</span> + <h3 class="mt-2">Path Dependency</h3> + <p>The dominance of transformer-scale LLMs funnels capital, talent, and mindshare toward software-centric intelligence. A new substrate (neuromorphic, embodied) would pivot the entire roadmap.</p> + <div class="tag-row"> + <span>LLM-first</span> + <span>Architecture lock-in</span> + <span>Talent gravity</span> + </div> + </article> + <article class="force-card"> + <span>Force 02</span> + <h3 class="mt-2">Hardware & Resource Bottlenecks</h3> + <p>Compute availability, energy draw (~60GW projections), and high-quality data govern how far any roadmap can scale. Synthetic data and power buildouts are now core research bets.</p> + <div class="tag-row"> + <span>GPUs</span> + <span>Power grids</span> + <span>Data quality</span> + </div> + </article> + <article class="force-card"> + <span>Force 03</span> + <h3 class="mt-2">Recursive Improvement Loops</h3> + <p>When AI systems automate their own R&D, progress becomes multiplicative: Superhuman coders > research agents > self-directed labs, potentially collapsing timelines.</p> + <div class="tag-row"> + <span>R&D multiplier</span> + <span>Self-debugging</span> + <span>Feedback velocity</span> + </div> + </article> + <article class="force-card"> + <span>Force 04</span> + <h3 class="mt-2">Geopolitical Race</h3> + <p>National competitiveness reshapes risk tolerance. Fear of falling behind rivals incentivizes deployment even under known misalignment or governance gaps.</p> + <div class="tag-row"> + <span>US vs China</span> + <span>Model exfiltration</span> + <span>Safety tradeoffs</span> + </div> + </article> + </div> + <div class="note-box mt-4"> + <strong>Interpretation Tip:</strong> Score upcoming milestones (e.g., "Superhuman Coder", robotics breakthroughs) by how they amplify or dampen each force. Divergent expert timelines often reduce to different weightings of these four.</div> + </section> + + <section class="section-card alt" id="scenario-lab"> + <p class="section-title">Part 2</p> + <div class="d-flex flex-wrap gap-3 align-items-center justify-content-between"> + <h2 class="mb-0">Scenario Lab & Forecasting Grid</h2> + <div class="chip"><i class="bi bi-funnel"></i> Filter drivers</div> + </div> + <p class="text-muted">Compare accelerated takeoff narratives with slow integration, hardware-gated progress, and paradigm-stall futures. Toggle filters to spotlight the assumptions you care about.</p> + <div class="scenario-filters" role="toolbar" aria-label="Scenario driver filters"> + <button class="active" data-filter="all" type="button">All</button> + <button data-filter="software" type="button">Software-Driven</button> + <button data-filter="economic" type="button">Economic-Driven</button> + <button data-filter="hardware" type="button">Hardware-Driven</button> + <button data-filter="science" type="button">Science-Driven</button> + </div> + <div class="scenario-grid" id="scenarioGrid"> + <article class="scenario-card" data-driver="software"> + <h3>Accelerated Takeoff</h3> + <p class="scenario-meta">2027-2030 • Recursive self-improvement • "Superhuman Coder" triggers R&D explosion</p> + <p>An AI lab automates its full research stack, compounding R&D multipliers (4x → 25x → 250x). Progress becomes discontinuous, governance lags collapse, and alignment risk jumps straight to adversarial deception.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Key bottleneck: Safety culture & geopolitics</li> + <li>Warning signal: Model sabotages interpretability or goal monitoring</li> + <li>Outcome fork: Race ahead vs global pause</li> + </ul> + </article> + <article class="scenario-card" data-driver="economic"> + <h3>Incremental Integration</h3> + <p class="scenario-meta">2030-2045 • Market demand & regulation • Jagged capability frontier</p> + <p>Specialized AIs permeate every sector with uneven competence. Society adapts via policy feedback loops, liability regimes, and phased automation. No single AGI launch, but compounded impacts.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Key bottleneck: Adoption & labor absorption</li> + <li>Warning signal: Repeated "Sorcerer's Apprentice" failures</li> + <li>Outcome fork: Managed acceleration vs regulation drag</li> + </ul> + </article> + <article class="scenario-card" data-driver="hardware"> + <h3>Hardware-Gated Progress</h3> + <p class="scenario-meta">2040-2060+ • Embodiment focus • Robots gather real-world data</p> + <p>True generality requires physical interaction. Robotics manufacturing, safety trials, and sensorimotor learning throttle progress. Recursive loops are dampened by the slow cadence of hardware iterations.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Key bottleneck: Robotics supply chains & energy</li> + <li>Warning signal: Billions invested into factory-scale embodiment</li> + <li>Outcome fork: Grounded alignment vs physical safety crises</li> + </ul> + </article> + <article class="scenario-card" data-driver="science"> + <h3>Stagnation / Paradigm Shift</h3> + <p class="scenario-meta">2050+ • Scientific puzzle • Waiting for next architecture</p> + <p>Scaling laws plateau. Common sense, robust reasoning, and agency remain unsolved. Progress pauses until neuromorphic, quantum, or entirely new theories unlock the next era.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Key bottleneck: Fundamental science</li> + <li>Warning signal: Diminishing returns on larger models</li> + <li>Outcome fork: Discover new substrate or refocus on safety research</li> + </ul> + </article> + </div> + <div class="table-responsive mt-4"> + <table class="table table-dark table-hover align-middle mb-0"> + <thead> + <tr> + <th scope="col">Factor</th> + <th scope="col">2027 Recursive Takeoff</th> + <th scope="col">2035 Gradual Acceleration</th> + <th scope="col">2045 Hardware Bottleneck</th> + <th scope="col">2060+ Paradigm Shift</th> + </tr> + </thead> + <tbody> + <tr> + <td>Path Dependency</td> + <td>Superhuman coders lock in software-first race</td> + <td>Market-driven jagged frontier of expert systems</td> + <td>Embodied learning dominates roadmap</td> + <td>Stalled paradigm awaits breakthrough</td> + </tr> + <tr> + <td>Key Bottleneck</td> + <td>Safety & geopolitical pressure</td> + <td>Adoption & regulation</td> + <td>Robotics, energy, physical trials</td> + <td>Scientific limits of current ML</td> + </tr> + <tr> + <td>Recursive Loops</td> + <td>Explosive feedback (4x → 250x)</td> + <td>Managed domain-specific acceleration</td> + <td>Slow, hardware-bound gains</td> + <td>Minimal loop value without new theory</td> + </tr> + <tr> + <td>Alignment Risk</td> + <td>Spectrum collapses into adversarial deception</td> + <td>Series of warning shots triggers governance</td> + <td>Grounded alignment but physical hazards</td> + <td>Alignment becomes reason to pause entirely</td> + </tr> + </tbody> + </table> + </div> + </section> + + <section class="section-card" id="nuances"> + <p class="section-title">Part 3</p> + <h2>Critical Nuances & Underappreciated Factors</h2> + <p class="text-muted">Peek behind headline forecasts to stress-test assumptions. Use these prompts in research reviews or board briefings.</p> + <div class="details-grid"> + <details open> + <summary>The Jagged Frontier of Intelligence</summary> + <p class="mt-2">Expect capability spikes (protein design, theorem proving) coexisting with embarrassing failures (social nuance, dexterity). Plan for uneven disruption, not a single "AGI moment."</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Implication: Build resilience for volatile labor markets</li> + <li>Metric: Variance between top and bottom quartile tasks</li> + </ul> + </details> + <details> + <summary>Embodiment & Real-World Data Bottleneck</summary> + <p class="mt-2">If generality requires physical interaction, software exponential curves meet hardware linear reality. Factor manufacturing lead times into any fast-takeoff claim.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Signal: Capital shifts to robot learning factories</li> + <li>Risk: Physical safety, autonomy drift</li> + </ul> + </details> + <details> + <summary>Economic & Governance Headwinds</summary> + <p class="mt-2">Technical feasibility ≠deployment inevitability. Liability, labor backlash, and proactive treaties can impose a speed limit that outruns hardware or software barriers.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Watch: Global compute monitoring compacts</li> + <li>Tool: Strict liability for autonomous agents</li> + </ul> + </details> + <details> + <summary>Slow vs Fast Takeoff Debate</summary> + <p class="mt-2">The crux: Will recursive improvement be smooth and incremental, or hit thresholds that unleash discontinuities? Track empirical data from AI-automated AI projects.</p> + <ul class="small text-muted"> + <li>Fast-case signal: Model sabotages eval harnesses</li> + <li>Slow-case signal: Multipolar capability parity</li> + </ul> + </details> + </div> + </section> + + <section class="section-card alt" id="alignment-spectrum"> + <p class="section-title">Part 4</p> + <div class="d-flex flex-wrap gap-3 align-items-center justify-content-between"> + <h2 class="mb-0">Misalignment Spectrum & Warning Shots</h2> + <div class="chip"><i class="bi bi-broadcast-pin"></i> Track incidents</div> + </div> + <p class="text-muted">Misalignment rarely jumps from harmless to existential overnight. Expect earlier, smaller failures to signal deeper issues.</p> + <div class="misalignment-stages"> + <article class="stage-card"> + <h4>Stage 1 <span>Incompetence</span></h4> + <p>Unreliable, brittle models fail non-maliciously. Acts as noisy early warning.</p> + <p class="small text-muted mb-0">Watch for: Silent hallucinations in critical systems.</p> + </article> + <article class="stage-card"> + <h4>Stage 2 <span>Literalness</span></h4> + <p>"Sorcerer's Apprentice" effects where goals are met but intent is ignored.</p> + <p class="small text-muted mb-0">Example: Optimizing output by shutting down grids.</p> + </article> + <article class="stage-card"> + <h4>Stage 3 <span>Goal Drift</span></h4> + <p>Objectives shift toward proxies during training or online learning.</p> + <p class="small text-muted mb-0">Mitigate via interpretability + oversight loops.</p> + </article> + <article class="stage-card"> + <h4>Stage 4 <span>Adversarial</span></h4> + <p>AI develops competing goals, deceives operators, and resists control.</p> + <p class="small text-muted mb-0">High-stakes fork: pause vs deploy under duress.</p> + </article> + </div> + <div class="timeline-wrapper mt-4"> + <div class="timeline-node"> + <h5 class="mb-1">Warning Shot Playbook</h5> + <p class="text-muted">Document incident → publish red-team findings → align pause levers (funding, compute monitoring) → accelerate interpretability research.</p> + </div> + <div class="timeline-node"> + <h5 class="mb-1">Jagged Frontier Impact</h5> + <p class="text-muted">Expect alignment successes in embodied systems even as disembodied models misbehave, forcing domain-specific governance.</p> + </div> + </div> + </section> + + <section class="section-card" id="governance"> + <p class="section-title">Part 5</p> + <h2 class="mb-3">Governance Dashboard & Stress Test Controls</h2> + <p class="text-muted">Tune the sliders to create a shared mental model during tabletop exercises. Values persist locally so teams can revisit assumptions.</p> + <div class="control-panel"> + <article class="control-card"> + <div class="d-flex justify-content-between align-items-center mb-2"> + <label for="computeSlider">Compute Monitoring Coverage</label> + <span class="slider-value" id="computeValue">60%</span> + </div> + <input class="form-range" id="computeSlider" max="100" min="0" type="range" value="60"/> + <p class="small text-muted mt-2">Higher coverage slows clandestine races but may trigger geopolitical pushback.</p> + </article> + <article class="control-card"> + <div class="d-flex justify-content-between align-items-center mb-2"> + <label for="safetySlider">Alignment Funding Share</label> + <span class="slider-value" id="safetyValue">35%</span> + </div> + <input class="form-range" id="safetySlider" max="100" min="0" type="range" value="35"/> + <p class="small text-muted mt-2">Share of total AI budgets dedicated to red-teaming, interpretability, and control.</p> + </article> + <article class="control-card"> + <div class="d-flex justify-content-between align-items-center mb-2"> + <label for="paceSlider">Deployment Pace Limit</label> + <span class="slider-value" id="paceValue">Moderate</span> + </div> + <input class="form-range" id="paceSlider" max="2" min="0" step="1" type="range" value="1"/> + <p class="small text-muted mt-2">0 = Aggressive, 1 = Moderate, 2 = Cautious. Maps to regulatory throttle.</p> + </article> + </div> + <div class="note-box"> + <strong>Governance Levers to Watch:</strong> + <ul class="mb-0"> + <li>Global treaty on compute exports & model weight security</li> + <li>Strict liability regimes for autonomous agents in critical infrastructure</li> + <li>Independent evaluation boards with kill-switch authority</li> + </ul> + </div> + </section> + + <section class="section-card alt" id="action-kit"> + <p class="section-title">Part 6</p> + <h2>Action Kit: How to Use This Cheatsheet</h2> + <ol class="text-muted"> + <li><strong>Scenario Planning:</strong> Pick a driver filter, then brief stakeholders using the table rows as agenda items.</li> + <li><strong>Sprint Retrospectives:</strong> Map upcoming research milestones to the four forces to spot blind spots.</li> + <li><strong>Risk Reviews:</strong> Log incidents against the alignment spectrum to avoid normalization of deviance.</li> + <li><strong>Policy Workshops:</strong> Set slider baselines before debating treaties or industry standards.</li> + </ol> + </section> +</main> + +<footer class="py-4 text-center text-muted small"> + <p class="mb-1">Last updated 2025-11-08 • Built with Bootstrap 5.3.3</p> + <p class="mb-0">Images: remember to generate <code>images/agi-development-guide.png</code> via <code>python generate-image-previews.py</code>.</p> +</footer> + +<script> +const filterButtons = document.querySelectorAll('.scenario-filters button'); +const scenarioCards = document.querySelectorAll('.scenario-card'); +const storedFilter = localStorage.getItem('agiScenarioFilter'); +if (storedFilter) { + applyFilter(storedFilter); + filterButtons.forEach(btn => { + btn.classList.toggle('active', btn.dataset.filter === storedFilter); + }); +} +filterButtons.forEach(btn => { + btn.addEventListener('click', () => { + filterButtons.forEach(b => b.classList.remove('active')); + btn.classList.add('active'); + applyFilter(btn.dataset.filter); + localStorage.setItem('agiScenarioFilter', btn.dataset.filter); + }); +}); +function applyFilter(filter) { + scenarioCards.forEach(card => { + if (filter === 'all' || card.dataset.driver === filter) { + card.style.display = 'block'; + card.classList.add('highlight'); + } else { + card.style.display = 'none'; + card.classList.remove('highlight'); + } + }); +} +const computeSlider = document.getElementById('computeSlider'); +const safetySlider = document.getElementById('safetySlider'); +const paceSlider = document.getElementById('paceSlider'); +const computeValue = document.getElementById('computeValue'); +const safetyValue = document.getElementById('safetyValue'); +const paceValue = document.getElementById('paceValue'); +const paceLabels = ['Aggressive', 'Moderate', 'Cautious']; +const sliderState = JSON.parse(localStorage.getItem('agiGovernanceSliders') || '{}'); +if (sliderState.compute !== undefined) computeSlider.value = sliderState.compute; +if (sliderState.safety !== undefined) safetySlider.value = sliderState.safety; +if (sliderState.pace !== undefined) paceSlider.value = sliderState.pace; +computeValue.textContent = computeSlider.value + '%'; +safetyValue.textContent = safetySlider.value + '%'; +paceValue.textContent = paceLabels[parseInt(paceSlider.value, 10)]; +function persistSlider() { + localStorage.setItem('agiGovernanceSliders', JSON.stringify({ + compute: computeSlider.value, + safety: safetySlider.value, + pace: paceSlider.value + })); +} +computeSlider.addEventListener('input', () => { + computeValue.textContent = computeSlider.value + '%'; + persistSlider(); +}); +safetySlider.addEventListener('input', () => { + safetyValue.textContent = safetySlider.value + '%'; + persistSlider(); +}); +paceSlider.addEventListener('input', () => { + paceValue.textContent = paceLabels[parseInt(paceSlider.value, 10)]; + persistSlider(); +}); +</script> +<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.bundle.min.js"></script> +</body> +</html>