See the comparison state by state
Choose a measure, then hover, focus, or select a state for its exact value. Color runs continuously from the lowest to highest state value.
Classification rule
Trump states (31): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
Harris states (19): California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington. DC appears in the ledger but not pooled state results.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin changed from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024. No purple category is used.
Red vs blue state economies: the scoreboard
Each row answers a different question; no composite “winner” is calculated.
| Measure | Slate side · 31 Trump states | Bronze side · 19 Harris states | What it tells you | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total GDP | $15.17T | $13.78T | Scale of production, not individual welfare | 2024 BEA |
| GDP per resident | $76,315 | $98,022 | Output divided by population | 2024 BEA + ACS |
| Avg. state median household income | $75,230 | $94,427 | Population-weighted state medians; not a national microdata median | 2024 ACS |
| RPP-adjusted median income | $76,582 | $92,378 | Approximate purchasing power after state price levels | 2024 ACS + BEA |
| Aggregate real GDP growth, 2019–24 | 14.8% | 10.4% | Five-year output change; pandemic endpoints matter | 2019–24 BEA |
| Annual unemployment | 3.8% | 4.4% | Population-weighted state annual rates | 2024 BLS |
| Net domestic migration | +486,948 | -486,611 | People moving between states, not international migration | Jul 2023–Jul 2024 Census |
| State-local tax burden | 9.4% | 13.0% | Residents' estimated state-local taxes as share of income | 2022 Tax Foundation model |
| Federal balance per resident | $4,817 | $2,538 | Federal spending located in states minus receipts allocated to states | FFY 2023 Rockefeller |
| Official poverty rate | 12.8% | 11.2% | ACS official measure; does not adjust state costs | 2024 ACS |
The verdict flips when the measure changes
| Claim / measure | Higher side in this vintage | Complicating measure | Defensible sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which side produces more in total? | Slate | Population and number of states | The Trump states produced more combined 2024 GDP under this fixed election grouping. |
| Which side produces more per resident? | Bronze | Industry mix and urban concentration | The Harris group had higher 2024 GDP per resident. |
| Where is nominal median income higher? | Bronze | Regional prices | Population-weighted state medians favor the Harris group before price adjustment. |
| Where does median income buy more? | Bronze | Housing quality and household composition | BEA price adjustment narrows but does not reverse the nominal result. |
| Where are people moving? | Slate | Weather, housing supply, age, and job mix | Net domestic migration favored the Trump states from July 2023 to July 2024. |
| Who gets more from Washington? | Slate | Bases, federal payroll, age, poverty, disasters, and progressive taxes | The Trump group had the larger population-weighted FFY 2023 federal balance per resident. |
Does the result depend on six close states?
Remove the six closest high-impact states from both groups, then recompute.
| Measure | All states winner | Excluding WI, MI, PA, GA, NC, NV | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total GDP | Trump | Harris | Large close states can move the pooled total |
| GDP per resident | Harris | Harris | Tests whether the result rests on swing-state assignment |
| RPP-adjusted median income | Harris | Harris | Price-adjusted household-resource proxy |
| Real GDP growth, 2019–24 | Trump | Trump | Five-year aggregate growth |
| Domestic migration | Trump | Trump | Absolute net movers, not a rate |
| Federal BOP/person | Trump | Trump | Federal geography can dominate ideology |
The full 50-state ledger plus DC
Sorted by 2024 GDP. Every column keeps its year visible here; “federal BOP” means spending located in the state minus receipts allocated to it.
| State / district | 2024 winner | GDP | GDP/person | RPP-adjusted median HH income | Real GDP 5y | Domestic migration | Unemployment | Tax burden | Poverty | Federal BOP/person |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | Harris | $4.05T | $102,662 | $97,620 | +11.4% | -239,575 | 5.3% | 13.5% | 11.8% | $342 |
| Texas | Trump | $2.77T | $88,517 | $82,118 | +23.0% | +85,267 | 4.1% | 8.6% | 13.4% | $2,603 |
| New York | Harris | $2.32T | $116,883 | $82,466 | +8.0% | -120,917 | 4.3% | 15.9% | 14.0% | $674 |
| Florida | Trump | $1.73T | $73,879 | $76,719 | +24.6% | +64,017 | 3.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | $2,574 |
| Illinois | Harris | $1.15T | $90,330 | $83,081 | +4.8% | -56,235 | 5.0% | 12.9% | 11.6% | $818 |
| Pennsylvania | Trump | $1.01T | $77,062 | $77,730 | +4.1% | -11,500 | 3.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | $4,826 |
| Ohio | Trump | $923.1B | $77,684 | $72,980 | +7.1% | -2,462 | 4.3% | 10.0% | 12.7% | $5,075 |
| Georgia | Trump | $881.5B | $78,841 | $82,174 | +12.4% | +25,321 | 3.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | $3,951 |
| Washington | Harris | $856.0B | $107,564 | $95,683 | +19.3% | +2,671 | 4.5% | 10.7% | 9.9% | -$7 |
| New Jersey | Harris | $846.0B | $89,045 | $100,739 | +9.2% | -35,554 | 4.5% | 13.2% | 9.2% | -$2,011 |
| North Carolina | Trump | $844.2B | $76,427 | $75,324 | +16.9% | +82,288 | 3.6% | 9.9% | 12.5% | $4,808 |
| Massachusetts | Harris | $778.5B | $109,095 | $101,921 | +11.0% | -27,480 | 4.0% | 11.5% | 9.7% | -$967 |
| Virginia | Harris | $761.7B | $86,451 | $91,876 | +13.4% | +5,284 | 2.9% | 12.5% | 9.7% | $16,650 |
| Michigan | Trump | $702.5B | $69,274 | $71,720 | +7.9% | -7,656 | 4.7% | 8.6% | 13.4% | $4,584 |
| Arizona | Trump | $570.1B | $75,186 | $79,260 | +24.3% | +34,902 | 3.6% | 9.5% | 11.7% | $7,195 |
| Tennessee | Trump | $561.2B | $77,645 | $75,673 | +18.9% | +48,476 | 3.4% | 7.6% | 13.5% | $4,589 |
| Colorado | Harris | $557.6B | $93,602 | $97,490 | +17.0% | +5,422 | 4.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | $1,051 |
| Maryland | Harris | $546.0B | $87,180 | $101,288 | +7.6% | -18,509 | 3.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | $13,037 |
| Indiana | Trump | $519.5B | $75,028 | $72,580 | +11.2% | +4,268 | 4.2% | 9.3% | 12.2% | $4,415 |
| Minnesota | Harris | $507.7B | $87,636 | $86,932 | +8.0% | -1,161 | 3.0% | 12.1% | 9.3% | $807 |
| Wisconsin | Trump | $453.3B | $76,044 | $77,877 | +6.3% | +6,332 | 3.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | $2,887 |
| Missouri | Trump | $448.7B | $71,846 | $75,223 | +10.0% | +12,289 | 3.7% | 9.3% | 12.3% | $7,150 |
| South Carolina | Trump | $357.1B | $65,173 | $73,613 | +16.3% | +68,043 | 4.1% | 8.9% | 13.3% | $7,926 |
| Connecticut | Harris | $356.8B | $97,096 | $93,562 | +4.0% | -6,060 | 3.2% | 15.4% | 10.2% | $2,937 |
| Oregon | Harris | $330.3B | $77,299 | $84,967 | +9.8% | -1,162 | 4.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | $4,389 |
| Louisiana | Trump | $329.2B | $71,594 | $63,722 | +4.2% | -17,405 | 4.4% | 9.1% | 18.7% | $8,784 |
| Alabama | Trump | $325.3B | $63,080 | $68,926 | +13.5% | +26,028 | 3.1% | 9.8% | 15.2% | $10,268 |
| Utah | Trump | $299.5B | $85,475 | $97,675 | +21.6% | +3,220 | 3.2% | 12.1% | 8.3% | $1,067 |
| Kentucky | Trump | $295.4B | $64,375 | $66,351 | +9.1% | +7,294 | 5.1% | 9.6% | 15.6% | $10,813 |
| Nevada | Trump | $269.0B | $82,330 | $82,166 | +17.8% | +16,853 | 5.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | $2,120 |
| Iowa | Trump | $265.8B | $81,998 | $81,248 | +9.5% | -231 | 3.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | $3,481 |
| Oklahoma | Trump | $263.7B | $64,388 | $69,295 | +5.1% | +14,036 | 3.3% | 9.0% | 14.9% | $8,097 |
| Kansas | Trump | $230.5B | $77,601 | $80,492 | +7.1% | -4,701 | 3.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | $3,900 |
| Nebraska | Trump | $189.2B | $94,364 | $82,142 | +16.1% | -1,498 | 2.8% | 11.5% | 10.9% | $2,351 |
| Arkansas | Trump | $188.3B | $60,984 | $65,161 | +15.9% | +13,465 | 3.5% | 10.2% | 15.5% | $7,340 |
| District of Columbia | Harris | $184.3B | $262,439 | $106,549 | +4.4% | -337 | 5.2% | 12.0% | 17.3% | not reported |
| Mississippi | Trump | $158.2B | $53,751 | $61,533 | +11.0% | -4,939 | 3.2% | 9.8% | 17.8% | $11,714 |
| New Mexico | Harris | $147.1B | $69,046 | $68,821 | +18.6% | -1,571 | 4.1% | 10.2% | 16.4% | $16,178 |
| Idaho | Trump | $129.0B | $64,457 | $81,973 | +22.7% | +16,383 | 3.7% | 10.7% | 10.5% | $4,191 |
| New Hampshire | Harris | $119.3B | $84,694 | $96,056 | +12.4% | +4,889 | 2.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | $23 |
| Hawaii | Harris | $117.6B | $81,339 | $97,908 | +3.4% | -9,321 | 3.0% | 14.1% | 10.0% | $10,291 |
| Delaware | Harris | $111.0B | $105,495 | $86,466 | +14.4% | +8,155 | 3.7% | 12.4% | 9.6% | $5,360 |
| West Virginia | Trump | $106.5B | $60,156 | $60,835 | +7.2% | +4,520 | 4.1% | 9.8% | 16.7% | $12,130 |
| Maine | Harris | $99.2B | $70,586 | $74,078 | +16.5% | +5,329 | 3.1% | 12.4% | 10.6% | $9,144 |
| Rhode Island | Harris | $80.4B | $72,265 | $81,198 | +5.5% | -305 | 4.3% | 11.4% | 12.2% | $4,767 |
| North Dakota | Trump | $80.1B | $100,504 | $85,424 | +6.7% | -291 | 2.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% | $2,787 |
| Montana | Trump | $78.4B | $68,975 | $76,321 | +20.6% | +5,410 | 3.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | $4,929 |
| South Dakota | Trump | $76.8B | $83,052 | $83,658 | +9.9% | +2,132 | 1.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | $3,626 |
| Alaska | Trump | $71.6B | $96,695 | $93,598 | +6.8% | -3,774 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 10.2% | $14,760 |
| Wyoming | Trump | $51.5B | $87,639 | $75,210 | +3.1% | +861 | 3.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | $3,218 |
| Vermont | Harris | $46.3B | $71,359 | $81,438 | +9.2% | -511 | 2.3% | 13.6% | 9.0% | $5,558 |
Where are domestic movers actually going?
Census net domestic migration, July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024. Census counts people; IRS migration data can add adjusted gross income.
| Rank | Top gainer | Net domestic movers | 2024 result | Top loser | Net domestic movers | 2024 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | +85,267 | Trump | California | -239,575 | Harris |
| 2 | North Carolina | +82,288 | Trump | New York | -120,917 | Harris |
| 3 | South Carolina | +68,043 | Trump | Illinois | -56,235 | Harris |
| 4 | Florida | +64,017 | Trump | New Jersey | -35,554 | Harris |
| 5 | Tennessee | +48,476 | Trump | Massachusetts | -27,480 | Harris |
| 6 | Arizona | +34,902 | Trump | Maryland | -18,509 | Harris |
| 7 | Alabama | +26,028 | Trump | Louisiana | -17,405 | Trump |
| 8 | Georgia | +25,321 | Trump | Pennsylvania | -11,500 | Trump |
| 9 | Nevada | +16,853 | Trump | Hawaii | -9,321 | Harris |
| 10 | Idaho | +16,383 | Trump | Michigan | -7,656 | Trump |
Do blue states subsidize red states?
| Rank | Highest federal balance | $/resident | 2024 result | Lowest federal balance | $/resident | 2024 result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia | $16,650 | Harris | New Jersey | -$2,011 | Harris |
| 2 | New Mexico | $16,178 | Harris | Massachusetts | -$967 | Harris |
| 3 | Alaska | $14,760 | Trump | Washington | -$7 | Harris |
| 4 | Maryland | $13,037 | Harris | New Hampshire | $23 | Harris |
| 5 | West Virginia | $12,130 | Trump | California | $342 | Harris |
| 6 | Mississippi | $11,714 | Trump | New York | $674 | Harris |
| 7 | Kentucky | $10,813 | Trump | Minnesota | $807 | Harris |
| 8 | Hawaii | $10,291 | Harris | Illinois | $818 | Harris |
| 9 | Alabama | $10,268 | Trump | Colorado | $1,051 | Harris |
| 10 | Maine | $9,144 | Harris | Utah | $1,067 | Trump |
Common mistakes
Totals vs per-capita
California and Texas move totals. A resident-level claim needs a denominator; an aggregate market-size claim does not.
Ignoring prices
Nominal income buys different housing and services. RPP adjustment helps, but it does not measure quality, taxes, climate, or household size.
Credit to today's governor
Oil geology, ports, universities, finance clusters, age structure, and housing stock predate any current officeholder.
Migration as a policy referendum
Jobs and taxes matter, but so do weather, family, retirement, remote work, housing supply, disaster, and international immigration.
Cherry-picked endpoints
A five-year window starting in 2019 crosses a pandemic shock. Use several windows before claiming a durable growth regime.
DC as an ordinary state
DC is shown in the ledger but excluded from red/blue pooled results and federal BOP ranking. Its federal payroll and city-state structure break the comparison.
One party caused one economy
Presidential vote is a classification key, not a causal design. These are descriptive groups with enormous within-group variance.
Sources & method
- BEA GDP by state: 2024 current-dollar GDP and 2019–24 real GDP; BEA RPP: 2024 regional price levels.
- 2024 ACS R1901 workbook: median household income; ACS R1701 workbook: official poverty; Census Vintage 2024 components: population and domestic migration.
- BLS 2024 annual state unemployment.
- Tax Foundation 2022 state-local burden model, built from Census state/local finance and BEA income data. This is a modeled burden, not a statutory rate.
- Rockefeller Institute 2025 report, Tables 5–6: FFY 2023 federal receipts, expenditures, and balance by state. DC is not ranked.
- Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2024 for the fixed classification.
- Census 2024 Cartographic Boundary Files, 1:20,000,000 KML, for the state map geometry.
Method: pooled totals sum states. Pooled rates and state-median measures are population-weighted descriptive averages, not microdata estimates. The generator downloads the official source files and rebuilds the table; tax and federal-balance vintages are intentionally labeled because they lag.