p(doom) Calculator

This interactive calculator helps you estimate your personal probability of an AGI-caused existential catastrophe, known as "p(doom)". Adjust your confidence in various counterarguments to AI doom scenarios based on Liron Shapira's analysis.

How it works: Start with a 99% base probability of doom. Each category represents potential "off-ramps" from catastrophe. Higher confidence in arguments reduces your final p(doom).