p(doom) Calculator Test Harness

Current Formula Analysis

Current: p(doom) = 99% × F₁ × F₂ × ... × F₉
where Fᵢ = 1 - (Category_Strengthᵢ / 100)

Problem: With 9 categories and all sliders at 50%:
99% × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.19%

Test Different Base Probabilities

Testing what base probability gives us 50% with all sliders at 50%:

Test Different Formulas

Recommended Solution

Test Scenarios with Recommended Formula